Nigeria's staunch belief in new president Muhammadu Buhari being sorely tested

Nigeria’s new president was always going to have his work cut out for him. Some voters placed him on a pedestal, hailing him as the man who would save Africa’s largest but languishing economy.
By his own admission, Muhammadu Buhari is something of a rock star. People cry when they see him, with thousands defying airport security to run on to the tarmac as he flew into Taraba state in March. An 80-year-old food seller from Kebbi state even donated her life savings to his campaign in January, reducing the lanky ex-general to tears. In northern Nigeria, his street name is Mai Gaskiya – one whose word is his bond.

Buhari was expected to crack down on corruption, but his failure to provide clear-cut policy directives early on in his leadership is testing voters’ faith

Post-election, the heat is on. Falling oil prices (now below the budget benchmark of $53 per barrel); Boko Haram’s raging insurgency that has claimed more than 13,000 lives; and large-scale corruption have ensured Nigerians are getting tetchy.
After winning by a 2.57 million-vote margin, Buhari was expected to kick off his term by cracking down on corruption and reclaiming some of the $15.7bn that has been taken out of Nigeria illegally in the past decade. Nigerians thought this was a given, noting Buhari’s previous record as military head of state 30 years ago.
But now, the public’s confidence in his ability to root out corruption is waning as Nigerians realise no one seems to be going to jail soon; Buhari’s party has outlined “alleged” corruption scandals in the newspapers, but taken no one to court. He has not formed a cabinet, or provided clear-cut policy directives in critical sectors. His party has enthusiastically welcomed new members from the opposition party, while the National Assembly only sat for 14 days in three months.
So far, Buhari seems to have focused on fighting Boko Haram, giving newly appointed security chiefs a December deadline to end the insurgency; cleaning up the corrupt oil and gas sector by appointing a new head of the state oil company NNPC; and rebuilding Nigeria’s image with strategic diplomatic visits. Clearly, he wants to persuade regional allies to cooperate in the fight against Boko Haram by contributing to a multinational security force. He is also looking into a raft of over-budgeted security contracts for weapons.

Meanwhile, the public’s staunch belief in the integrity of Mai Gaskiya has been taking a hit. The president has declared his assets via a press release, but this still falls short of the standard prescribed by the Code of Conduct Bureau. He has promised to release the full documents soon.

Buhari’s decision to wait 90 days before appointing key government officials led to an uproar, with critics saying he favoured people from the north. His aides, in damage control mode, said that more than 6,000 appointments are yet to be announced.
Now focus has begun to shift to the cost of a bloated cabinet. On the ground, ordinary people are bearing the brunt. Since Buhari’s win, the stock market has lost more than $10bn in value, job creation has ebbed, and growth slowed to 2.35% in the second quarter, with the low oil prices in the spotlight. Petrol prices have stabilised but inflation keeps rising and the petrol subsidy debt has risen to $1.57bn: if unchecked, this is likely to lead to another oil workers’ union strike and rise in energy prices.
There are, however, glimmers of hope. Buhari has been decisive in coming to the rescue of states owing salaries, with a bailout of $3.4bn. His new tax boss is Babatunde Fowler, who notably raised tax revenues in the economic capital of Lagos. Fowler has a herculean task; Nigeria’s non-oil tax to GDP ratio is a shameful 4.6%.
Buhari is undoubtedly aware that he has his work cut out for him. Rather than erode public trust by trying hard to deny the magnitude of the promises he made, it would be better to honestly admit that most of them are impossible to fulfil, in the short term. His ability to prioritise and delegate as he forms his cabinet will be the deciding factor. Change will be painful, but to triumph, Buhari must make up for lost time as he unveils his cabinet this month.
Buhari’s supporters say his “body language” – or how his behaviour shapes attitudes in the civil service – is already paying dividends. They say the notoriously erratic power supply is already better, because corrupt officials fear what Buhari might do in the future. However, as Vincent Nwani of Lagos chamber of commerce and industry recently wrote: “Industry operators cannot take investment decisions based on [the president’s] body language.”

Oluseun Onigbinde is the lead partner at BudgIT, a civic organisation that works to engage citizens on how public budgets work